From 7de474357a147bab70a1d2878aa73d6c3f594068 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Mikka Petterson Date: Wed, 21 Oct 2026 00:09:42 +0200 Subject: Initial commit --- README.md | 39 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 39 insertions(+) create mode 100644 README.md (limited to 'README.md') diff --git a/README.md b/README.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e23bc4a --- /dev/null +++ b/README.md @@ -0,0 +1,39 @@ +# Day-Ahead Wind Speed Forecasting for Nord Pool Bidding + +Pluto notebook accompanying the individual weather data paper for *Introduction to Business Analytics* (EBC1042), Maastricht University School of Business and Economics. + +The paper proposes a day-ahead wind speed forecasting tool for the Alajärvi Wind Farm Complex (Ilmatar Energy), using daily FMI station data from Meteostat. + +## Models + +| Model | Description | +|-------|-------------| +| M0 | Persistence baseline (tomorrow = today) | +| M1 | Static OLS on Möksy plus the four inner-ring stations (10 lags) | +| M2 | Rolling 365-day OLS on Möksy plus inner and outer rings (18 lags) | + +All models predict day *t* from observations at *t − 1* and *t − 2*. Calibration runs January 2021 to October 2025, and the holdout runs October 2025 to October 2026. + +## Running the notebook + +Requires [Julia](https://julialang.org/downloads/) and [Pluto.jl](https://plutojl.org/). + +```bash +julia -e 'using Pluto; Pluto.run(notebook="Paper.jl")' +``` + +Pluto installs the required packages (GLM, DataFrames, LinearAlgebra) automatically on first run. + +## Data + +Daily wind speed observations from FMI synoptic stations, retrieved via [Meteostat](https://meteostat.net/). Place the data files in the project folder as described in the notebook. + +## Files + +- `Paper.jl`: the Pluto notebook with the full analysis +- `README.md`: this file +- `LICENSE`: license terms + +## Author + +Mikka Anton Petterson \ No newline at end of file -- cgit v1.2.3-70-g09d2